Sandy et les vitres cassées
Plusieurs économistes s’en donnent à coeur joie dans leurs prédictions de renouveau économique suite à la catastrophe de cette semaine, comme nous en parlions ici.
Selon Peter Morici, professeur à l’Université du Maryland:
Hurricanes, like other disasters, can cause big losses but also big spikes in economic activity, once homes and buildings are rebuilt or repaired. And Americans may spend more before the storm when they stock up on extra food, water and batteries. Spending can also rise afterward as households restock.
Rebuilding after Sandy, especially in an economy with high unemployment and underused resources in the construction industry, will unleash at least $15-20 billion in new direct private spending.
And the capital stock that emerges will prove more economically useful and productive.
Et selon Diane Swonk de Mesirow Capital:
You certainly don’t want to get a stimulus out of disaster, but they certainly do tend to stimulate.
Much of it is infrastructure spending, so the subways, the electrical grid, the downed power lines, the roadwork, the overtime on that. That’s the initial stuff that’s done immediately, along with window replacement.
Et, oui. Un pied de nez directement à La Vitre Cassée!